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Old 06-13-2018, 06:40 AM   #331
kirant
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Originally Posted by Thane of Cawdor View Post
Well here ya go Kirant. Trump and Kim Jong Un met and look at that, they accomplished something.
I'll agree they met. What they accomplished is currently little or favouring North Korea.

It's a fairly open secret that North Korea accidentally destroyed their nuclear facilities months ago. They have offered nothing of value so far and have gotten promises to end joint military exercises drills from Trump (something that took his military and South Korea off guard as they weren't alerted before China). The declaration they signed is pretty worthless as it's as vague as one Bill Clinton signed with Kim Jong-Il.

Any progress towards peace and reconciliation of the Koreas is good. I'm just not sure this is much more than fanfare yet though.

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Looks like he actually did something in global politics that everyone agrees with :P
Two points:

1) It actually wasn't universally like to have a sitting President meet with North Korea. Many have pointed out it makes North Korea look legitimate as a nation. I mean, the imagery of having the USA's flag fly beside that of a nation which commits mass murder and is more or less a giant prison is tough for some. Which led to this cute comment:

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(Edit - For clarity's sake, I don't personally care about either. Kneel as a sign of protest, slap a bunch of them beside North Korea's...either is fine for me...but it certainly bugs some)

2) This also leads to the question of political stance. Many Republicans did an about face. Even the thought of Obama meeting Kim Jong-un had some retching. The same ones gave praise today.

Example: Mercedes Schlapp.

Obama meets with Cuba and she worries about the implication of meeting Kim:

https://twitter.com/mercedesschlapp/...34598196957184

Today? Nothing but kind words.

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I for one, and I bet you agree, NAFTA is a joke, and needs to be destroyed and rebuilt. As every Canadian complains, doesn't it cost a fortune to ship to you guys?
The answers are no, and no.

NAFTA needs working out. It is an aged agreement but one which gives 1.4 million Americans jobs and keeps a very friendly relationship going.

Now, would you kill 1.4 million American jobs or would you negotiate to have it restructured? The latter is what's happening right now. You just happen to have a president who is not happy letting the process take shape and keeps trying to interfere using 19th century tactics in a 21st century world.

As for shipping, nobody actually complains. We complain about specific things, but cost of shipments aren't one.

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Thats not free trade.
That's also not trade related unless you're shipping specific items. You ship cheese up here?

Either way, the Americans have similar protectionist measures. I mean, for all the whining and bitching your president does about Canadian dairy import tariffs, you also tariff and then go spend 22 billion subsidizing your dairy farmers annually. (Source - https://www.realagriculture.com/2018...ys-new-report/ )

It was also the USA which kicked off the tiff by imposing steel and aluminum tariffs first for seemingly no reason. Canada literally just went dollar for dollar back.

If you want free and open trade, start with your own backyard. I'll accept free trade, but it takes two to tango.

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I'm hoping when the trade balances out,
Trade isn't zero sum. To have a trade deficit isn't bad by definition and to have a trade surplus isn't necessarily good.

Please tell me you at least learned that in the MBA classes you keep touting.
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Old 06-14-2018, 04:06 AM   #332
Thane of Cawdor
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I absolutly would kill NAFTA if it removed 1.4 million jobs from the government that could go into the private sector. I hope you're wrong because if 1.4 million people are needed for free trade, that level of effeciency and cost is nuts. And maybe Trump is old fashioned, and maybe (people like me) want to see some policies go back to the way they used to be, those who are tired of liberal sheeps blindly sqawking that 'we need change' like progress is always the answer. These are people who dont apprecaite what we have.

Your picture arguement doesn't work, it sucks. I'm not smart enough to remember, but its one of those 'logical fallicies' like "if you dont like X, then you must like Y" which is an oversimplication.

Technically the USA's government opresses its people and commits murder...obamacare tax mandate and cops shooting unarmed civilians, just on a different scale. But. I would rather we make friends with the guy than have a nuclear war. We will get to the so dubbed atrocities in time, and though I don't agree with his past decisions, we cannot change them. So would I do business with a tyrant who (in theory) would change, versus continue letting them live like that and possibly cause war? Obviously the first way is better. I hope things will continue to get better.

And no, trade won't ever fully balance, the exchange rates change several times a day, itll never be perfect. But as a whole (and wow, look, something i disagree with trump with), i am, economically, a 'global state anarchist' opposed to communist, in that I am anti-tarriff and if a country does X or Y better, you compete by outdoing them if you'd like, stick to your strengths, and don't tarriff cause someone has a competitive advantage. you re-do country lines, redo other things. I for one see tarriff's as analogous to welfare, to a degree. Get it?

Oh, and the Trump-Kim deal did do something for America. Trump's decision to stop out Korean-peninsula 'war-games' and reduce the number of troops there will save America TONS of money, literally tons and tons of piles of money. Yes our military is huge but for now itll stay that way. for now. maybe someday if we are more peaceful...
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Old 06-14-2018, 05:35 AM   #333
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I absolutly would kill NAFTA if it removed 1.4 million jobs from the government that could go into the private sector. I hope you're wrong because if 1.4 million people are needed for free trade, that level of effeciency and cost is nuts.
...I feel like you've never actually tried to understand NAFTA before.

Those are 1.4 million jobs created by free trade in private industry because of lower costs of trade between Canada/USA/Mexico (which should be obvious given the agreement literally has "Free Trade" in its name).

NAFTA literally makes it easier for every country in it to access each other's markets in free trade. Full removal of NAFTA results in increased tariffs and economic hurdles for private companies.

There are sometimes concessions to benefit all nations involved. For example, Mexican clothing is easier to import if it's made with American fabric. That way, American companies can create fabric and Mexican clothing can compete with American clothing without trade borders.

In a similar example, CETA allows European countries increased access to free trade within Canada.

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And maybe Trump is old fashioned, and maybe (people like me) want to see some policies go back to the way they used to be,those who are tired of liberal sheeps blindly sqawking that 'we need change' like progress is always the answer. These are people who dont apprecaite what we have.
That's like saying "I liked it when infant mortality rates were high. Those were the good old days".

You literally don't live in a world where the "old fashioned" foreign policies work. If you're willing to surrender your place as a power in the world to stick to old school foreign policy, go ahead. But don't be shocked if 30-40 years down the line, you're getting passed by everyone and find yourself in a world where China can call the shots in the position the USA was in for the 60s through 80s.

It's always about what you can do now to make the next forward step. Nothing stand stills forever and if you look to preserve that alone, then you'll miss that the rest of the world has bettered themselves.

You need examples? See China and Japan in the 1700s. They isolated themselves and, come the 1800s, the world came knocking on their door. They could do nothing but capitulate.

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Your picture arguement doesn't work, it sucks.
I never said it was good and it's not my argument.

My point was that some people are upset about placing the USA and North Korea on equal footing by having this summit in this form. Some would recommend having someone like Pence take the meeting instead and deny North Korea the pride of getting the "leader of the free world"'s ear.

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Technically the USA's government opresses its people and commits murder...obamacare tax mandate and cops shooting unarmed civilians, just on a different scale.
And any level of government creates restrictions of some variety.

But do you equate the two situations when Kim retains power by murdering siblings? And is it fair to recognize him as a legitimate power and a legitimate leader in those situations?

Not an opinion I fully side on, but that's an argument I've heard flying.

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And no, trade won't ever fully balance, the exchange rates change several times a day, itll never be perfect.
Except that's missing the forest for the trees. The question is if you side with virtually every economist in that trade alone can be beneficial regardless of the "surplus" or "deficit".

"Trade deficit but still beneficial" is a concept your President cannot seem to wrap his head around.

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Trump's decision to stop out Korean-peninsula 'war-games' and reduce the number of troops there will save America TONS of money, literally tons and tons of piles of money.
A tonne of money would be 3 million annually? 5 if we're generous? On a budget of 650+ billion in defence? ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/korean-...gapore-summit/ )

For the amount of soft power that surrender (especially in faith with South Korea), it's a questionable move for the dollar savings you get. It's a much better move in terms of appeasing the North Koreans (who get antsy around every military exercise).

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Yes our military is huge but for now itll stay that way. for now. maybe someday if we are more peaceful...
You guys literally spend more than the next 10 countries combined. I'm pretty sure you could halve your military and be fine.

Except, you know, you guys forgot to weaken the military-industrial complex before it had you by the short hairs.
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Old 06-14-2018, 06:30 AM   #334
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you've proved yourself again. Here's what you said:

That's like saying "I liked it when infant mortality rates were high. Those were the good old days".

Youre overly generalizing. Youre making yourself seem like a person who has a retort for everything, like you spend all day trying to make it sound like since no one is perfect, no one is fit to lead.

PS when i said a ton of money, 3 million isnt a ton. you realize each ground to air missile we're talking here is like 20 million a pop, itd be in the billions.

Kim Jong Un is a legitimate leader, North Korea is a real country, maybe not a great one, but hey Romulus and Remus were brothers, one killed the other, and then Rome was formed so...

And regarding NAFTA. You're missing my point. It never needed to be created in the first place. Creating 'free trade' is not about making some comittee, its about REMOVING laws and restriction. In a world of global free trade there's one document and we just ship back and forth. In fact, if you transport your goods yourself, with the exception of like xraying everything, there shouldnt be a charge for that, or at least nowhere near as big as it is. ANd you know damn well Canada is one of the worst places to ship to, you know your border checking system blows.

when people tell you removing NAFTA will result in 'higher' tarriffs, it means with it in place, we have some lower ones. if it were working correctly there would be none, I see it as an expensive half-assed program. How bout we get bold and try none? Ideally there should be none, globally. IE no more borders for trade, there are only companies buying and selling, global free trade.

Now i reread what you considered old fashined. Sorry but you are so delusional! You are so black and white because its simpler for you to not read grayscales. In other words, people who want black and white things are lazy and less smart. Take that as an insult. But I get so tired of people who are SO polarized, yourself included, into thinking "oh if the US goes to old fashioned in one policy we're going to be left in the dark ages." You are simplfying everything into black and white because you're too lazy to read the greyscale and realizing that some things are simple...and some are not. Let me quote you:

"It's always about what you can do now to make the next forward step."

This. This sentence is from the attitute of what I call the hyper liberals, people who absolutly cannot sit still and smell the roses. Everything is always bad, nothing is ever good enough, and you will never be pleased. The world isnt perfect, I realize these people want to make it what they think is better, but its like holy crap, enjoy life as it goes by. And you, Kirant, seem to me to be wanting to dumb down things into what you can apply your logical fallicies to so you always have a retort, I fear you are one of these people in the media who will spend your whole life debating and never get to smell the roses unless justice is served and can't take status quo. We're all stupid hypocrites, enjoy yourself a little, politics sucks.
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Old 06-14-2018, 07:29 AM   #335
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Quote:
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you've proved yourself again. [...] Youre overly generalizing. Youre making yourself seem like a person who has a retort for everything, like you spend all day trying to make it sound like since no one is perfect, no one is fit to lead.
In reference to what I state, the techniques employed to what I was talking about (Trump and his "take it or leave it" methodology in handling Canada and the EU) is a 18th century idea being played in a world which is far more complex than when it made sense. The level of integration of the economies of the world make his techniques destructive not only for the USA but the world. And the world seems willing to ignore the USA while it keeps moving forward.

And if we walk that path, the USA loses out heavily.

Now, had I said "using the Ideal Gas Law is like [the part you quote]", that is a fair comment to make. The Ideal Gas Law is still valid and is a very appropriate approximation outside certain scenarios (low temperature, high pressure I believe?). Seeing the world in a "I can bend things to my will by bullying people around" and "Trade loss is bad by definition" economically isn't

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PS when i said a ton of money, 3 million isnt a ton.
That's exactly what I meant. Stopping joint military exercises isn't an economic saving. Basically, you get no monetary savings out of it and just give the North Koreans something they want.

Now, you could argue that placating North Korea is the best approach. But there's not way getting around selling it as anything but giving them it.

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And regarding NAFTA. You're missing my point. It never needed to be created in the first place. Creating 'free trade' is not about making some comittee, its about REMOVING laws and restriction.
Creating free trade is certainly a thing unless you manage to destroy all countries and remove all borders (which I'm cool with if you can manage it somehow). You can go about it by withdrawing tariffs normally but NAFTA et al. make it formal and agreed upon with promise to not institute them against the countries in question. That is to say, NAFTA also basically is an agreement that the countries agree not to impose specific tariffs on each other's goods.

Now, you can say that "well, they should just rescind the tariffs anyways". NAFTA gives the guarantee that they don't impost new ones on a whim (let's say because a new PM is elected who happens to think protecting Canadian steel is in our best interests), blindsiding the other countries involved.

Either way, given the circumstances, the options are either "keep NAFTA" (which makes nobody happy), "renegotiate NAFTA" (current reality), or "destroy NAFTA" (the -1.4 million jobs) unless you propose something which would only currently exist within speculative fiction.

Maybe we get to that world someday where countries all accept it without condition. But that's not the world we have and NAFTA et al. are designed to emulate your goal.

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ANd you know damn well Canada is one of the worst places to ship to, you know your border checking system blows.
Honestly have no clue. Costs aren't insane unless you're asking for private firms.

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when people tell you removing NAFTA will result in 'higher' tarriffs, it means with it in place, we have some lower ones.
Uh...no.

Removing NAFTA makes Canada, USA, and Mexico exposed to tariffs by each other (which were waived because of NAFTA).

That is to say, let's say Canada tariffs 10% on all hourglasses. But let's also say under a section of NAFTA, that is waived. That makes the cost of selling in Canada cheaper and hourglass makers are more encouraged to produce more and gain a foothold in Canada. That increases production in USA and drives down cost of purchase in Canada. Pretty sweet deal I'd say.

With NAFTA destroyed, the 10% tariff on hourglasses suddenly come back. That drives down the possible areas where the USA can effectively sell their hourglasses and drop production again.

We'd have to assume that countries would act to reduce tariffs for no reason otherwise. And countries act in the best interest of the country (in theory at least). Which can mean being protectionist.

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Ideally there should be none, globally. IE no more borders for trade, there are only companies buying and selling, global free trade.
Ideal =/= reality.

You try to get 200+ people in a room to agree on...anything. See: any UN vote.

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You are so black and white because its simpler for you to not read grayscales. In other words, people who want black and white things are lazy and less smart.
Provide an argument the other way. Moving forward is pretty much a given. Every historical example of sealing yourself off has ended up bad. As in "we were forced to surrender land" bad.

You can attack me directly as much as you want but you provide no evidence that your claims work.

Go ahead and sling insults if it makes you feel better. It doesn't make you argument any stronger. Especially when all you say below that is just an emotional plea (and one which doesn't hold up at that).

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But I get so tired of people who are SO polarized, yourself included, into thinking "oh if the US goes to old fashioned in one policy we're going to be left in the dark ages." You are simplfying everything into black and white because you're too lazy to read the greyscale and realizing that some things are simple...and some are not.
I actually do have a grey scale. However, what you describe is reactionary (a far end of the 'reactionary-radical' scale), not conservative. A return to the "good old ways" as it were. And I am not a fan of reactionism.

Remember, conservatism is taking your time to weigh the merits. I actually support conservatism in that sense. Look before you leap so you avoid having to overcorrect as much as possible.

Reactionary is moving backwards or doing nothing. That is, to reverse course or to retain status quo.

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Everything is always bad, nothing is ever good enough, and you will never be pleased.
Strawman argument. Nobody said things are "always bad".

In the world we live in, there is always room to improve though. And I think it's a positive attitude to improve things as we can.

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And you, Kirant, seem to me to be wanting to dumb down things into what you can apply your logical fallicies to so you always have a retort,
I think the other way is the more appropriate look: that analyzing things through logic introduces greater meaning.

To be able to discuss and analyze everything, realizing that all our old assumptions may not be valid, is the best way to work. We assumed that the earth was the centre of the universe at one point. There's no reason that any of our core beliefs as a society could be wrong. And if it is, we must be willing to change.

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I fear you are one of these people in the media who will spend your whole life debating and never get to smell the roses unless justice is served and can't take status quo.
I think "enjoy" and "can see improvement" aren't mutually exclusive. I mean, one can enjoy a sport and still complain that the reffing sucks, right? To take away from a 10/10 experience can still leave you with a 9/10.

But it also doesn't mean that the 9/10 can't be fixed up in some way, shape, or form.
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Old 06-15-2018, 06:09 AM   #336
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Fred Kaplan in Slate:

"Demolition Donald"

Also, an image dump:

Spoiler: show









I love how Abe is looking at Merkel like: "Why are you even wasting your breath talking to this orange baka?"



EDIT: Also, from The Daily Banter:

Fascism Over Democracy: White Racist Voters Make Their Choice
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Old 06-15-2018, 06:21 AM   #337
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I think ya said it kirant when you said 'we must be willing to change.' and i'm a person, like trump, who may stand up and say 'no', I don't have to change.

and you don't do enough business, i ship globally all the time, and aside from australia, the canadians bitch the most. you i guess never got a box you paid 90$ for from UPS only to have a dude at the door demand another 100$ due to border checking fees you never agreed to. your post office blows dude, i can site a hundred examples.

KC, remember when trump was first elected and people said he wouldnt be able to do shit? The economy wouldnt ramp back up, unemployment wouldnt drop to 4 percent, the dow wouldnt hit 25k, and all that happened. so regarding kim jong un, i say wait. i bet some good stuff could still happen, trump has accomplished a lot. i for one, as an american, am doing better, making more money, feel like ive gotten a few civil liberties back, so from an american conservative's eyes, lots of things have gotten better.

P.S. Aside from trump i dont know who any of those people in his pictures are so i wont comment.
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Old 06-15-2018, 06:48 AM   #338
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NSFW for language.
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"...but they won't admit they made a huge, huge mistake, and in their fear they nervously laugh at all the other screaming passengers."
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Old 06-15-2018, 07:55 AM   #339
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I think ya said it kirant when you said 'we must be willing to change.' and i'm a person, like trump, who may stand up and say 'no', I don't have to change.
And I think it's a fair thing to say that holding nothing sacred and being willing to move to a more effective system, regardless of how enshrined the old one, is important. There's nothing to suggest that what we do today is ultimately the best...be it economics, science, sociological...anything really. We've been stupid in the past and there's not reason to think we aren't stupid now.

I think any person doesn't specifically -need- to change. The only person who can force you to change is yourself.

But it's not advantageous to continuously adapt. And if I don't, I wouldn't find myself surprised if someone "has it better" in that regard.

Think of it like playing a game: if you don't want to play by the "meta", you don't have to. You want to go 4th and long deep in your end in the first quarter? Be my guest. Hell, any card game I play has me mostly looking for creative victories over the most efficient ones.

But don't be shocked if someone else if it isn't going as well as someone who tweaks their strategy to the world around them. Who pours over tapes and strategies to develop the best plan. There is a lot of analog in this regard.

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and you don't do enough business, i ship globally all the time, and aside from australia, the canadians bitch the most. you i guess never got a box you paid 90$ for from UPS only to have a dude at the door demand another 100$ due to border checking fees you never agreed to.
Nope. I have asked for UPS before as well as private carrier. The costs tend to scale with shipping time and all costs, outside of 1 case, have been calculated beforehand (where I think it was a 15 dollar surcharge?).

I think I've shipped and received items <500 USD in value though and majority online (so it may be that websites are smart enough to calculate it all beforehand).

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your post office blows dude,
Oh, that part I'll agree with. The delivery speed isn't great in that I could walk mail within my city faster than it's delivered.

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The economy wouldnt ramp back up, unemployment wouldnt drop to 4 percent, the dow wouldnt hit 25k, and all that happened.
Economy also cooled down after the first year (I never credit any head of state with the first 12 months of their term as they have typically done nothing which would respond that quickly). I'll give any changes since the start of 2018.

Even if we take into account all Trump's Presidency though (Q1 2017 to today), the annual GDP growth under Trump (~2.4% mean) is very similar to Obama's in the last term (~2.31%). Obama had some pretty damn hot and cold years for his second term, but balanced out to be pretty similar to today's economy.

Data taken from:
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/...gdp-in-the-us/
- https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm

I would take the warning signs though. Your own budgeting office is pointing out that you're not stimulating the expected growth with tax cuts ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-2020-cbo-says ). In other words, you may be getting short term gains, but some pretty ugly long term costs.

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P.S. Aside from trump i dont know who any of those people in his pictures are so i wont comment.
I would almost suggest any amount of research would solve that.

Or maybe even read the post since one of them literally says "Putin" on it and another literally has the names of people in the picture.

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I love how Abe is looking at Merkel like: "Why are you even wasting your breath talking to this orange baka?"
One thing that surprised me is that even in Japan, the favourably of the USA has dropped (http://news.gallup.com/poll/225761/w...s-new-low.aspx ). Japan would have been one of the few countries that I would have expected would bite on a xenophobic platform given that tends to be pretty heavy on their own portfolio.

Granted, East Asia tends to hate loud and bombastic people as well...so there's that.
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Old 06-15-2018, 07:57 PM   #340
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Prez Cheeto Benito actually confessed that he wants the American people to treat him the way North Koreans treat Kim Jong Un.

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status...716801/video/1

Sh'yeah, right.

In your dreams, Orange Julius Caesar.



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