Thread: World Politics
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Old 10-13-2018, 09:04 AM   #423
kirant
I won't go 'til it's over
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thane of Cawdor View Post
First off, you need to research more,
Funny. Because of the two posts, only one references and defers to outside sources.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thane of Cawdor View Post
and secondly, um, where do you get 19 percent?? That's...like a wierd guess. Like you know something I don't. You're not planning something, are you?
I realize I didn't explain how I got to that. It's basically just actuarial data of the USA. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

For a woman of 85 years old, the death probability in the next year is ~10%. For a woman 86 years old, it is ~11%.

Probability of surviving to 87 is very simple:

- Probability of making it to 86 multiplied by the probability by making it to 87.

(1-.985) * (1-.109) = .803, meaning .197 is the probability of death.

Therefore, about 19%. I realize the above rounds to 20%, but mental math isn't a strong suit of mine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thane of Cawdor View Post
And of course the FBI investigation was a joke, it was Trump's way of like waving it off.
Which is clearly something Justice Roberts has a problem with and has accepted the recommendation to have it investigated further.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thane of Cawdor View Post
The politicians don't give a crap about him or her, its the dems vs the republicans again, it was finger pointing,
No disagreement in this statement.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thane of Cawdor View Post
this should have never been a story, someone waited 36 years whos actually a doctor, a psychologist who is paranoid and just now bitches about how she's afraid. If she's telling the truth, its her fault for waiting this long.
But I do disagree here.

The accusations are serious and the claim is internally consistent (unlike that by Swetnick, which were found to be inconsistent when she was interviewed for on national TV). An investigation is to determine whether or not evidence leans one way or the other.

I would not classify the behaviour as paranoid. Given how much of a mess it was for both Ford and Kavanaugh (recall one had to move out of their house and the other needed US marshals posted around it), both had good reason to fear this attention.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thane of Cawdor View Post
And if the dude was 17 and pressed up on some girl both drunk at a party, given how things were back then, ground him for a week and let him be judge and be done with it.
Again, let me know if your attitude is the same if you had a daughter go through this. If you had a child of yours in this type of situation (and only escaping because her assailants were THAT drunk), would you be fine hearing they got off with a slap on the wrist?

The biggest reason this doesn't fly though is the question of credibility. It's important to realize that the credibility of the Supreme Court is in question if Kavanaugh willingly lied under oath about his actions. Honestly, had he said "I have patches in my memory due to my drinking, so it could be true", I don't think people would be as hard on him.

For some, like me, another issue is that (now) Justice Kavanaugh comes off as partisan. The Supreme Court needs to be apolitical. When your first opening remarks state "This is a conspiracy on behalf of the Clintons", you do not present yourself as a credible source of interpreting information.

Key point here, so I'll bold it: Don't agree with me? Ask a former Supreme Court Justice. A life long Republican.

Ask John Paul Stevens. He literally states that Kavanaugh's hearings makes him think that Kavanaugh is unfit for the Court he served for 35 years.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/04/u...kavanaugh.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thane of Cawdor View Post
im glad he got in and I hope it puts an end to this witchhunt without proof crap once and for all.
Again, investigation isn't over and its rationale was accepted by the Supreme Court to continue further.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thane of Cawdor View Post
Just stop interrupting my TV shows with 'breaking news' of bullshit that can wait.
Yup. CNN sucks for its 24 hour cycle of "BREAKING NEWS - CAT CATCHES RAT" and other fluff.
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